← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 5/29/2025
Water FractalTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly 5/29/2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Fire Diana | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fire Resonance Bauble, Grand Crusader's Ring. Losers more often ran: Quicksilver Grail, Nullifying Mirror, Art of War.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Snow | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hairpin of Transience | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |