Water FractalTier 1
at Store Championships
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 20.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.9% | +5.6 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.1% | +16.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Disenchant, Frostbind, Frozen Dismissal. Losers more often ran: Jianyu, Fate's Premonition, Water Resonance Bauble, Unstable Fractal.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |