← Curio Grand Archive HVN Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Curio Grand Archive HVN Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aggro 1 10.0% 4 75.0% 55.1% 55.0% 52.1% 1451 ↑ top
2 Fire Suzaku 1 10.0% 4 75.0% 59.7% 55.0% 53.9% 1418 ↑ top
3 Water Allies 1 10.0% 4 75.0% 55.9% 55.0% 52.3% 1321
4 Wind Astra Cleric 1 10.0% 4 62.5% 49.0% 52.5% 49.6% 1388 ↑ top
5 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 10.0% 3 50.0% 56.3% 50.0% 52.9% 1138 ↓ low
6 Wind Luxem Zander 1 10.0% 4 50.0% 53.5% 50.0% 51.4% 1262
7 Wind Shadowstrike 1 10.0% 2 50.0% 48.2% 50.0% 48.9% 1464 ↑ top
8 Wind Allies 1 10.0% 2 0.0% 34.8% 40.0% 40.9% 1293
9 Wind Seiryuu 1 10.0% 2 0.0% 43.8% 40.0% 46.3% 1056 ↓ low
10 Water Fractal 1 10.0% 3 0.0% 37.2% 40.0% 44.0% 1096 ↓ low