← Path of Perak (WIN A BOX) Tournament by Favonia Hobbies @ Cosplay Party 5.0
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Path of Perak (WIN A BOX) Tournament by Favonia Hobbies @ Cosplay Party 5.0.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 87.5% | 50.7% | 58.3% | 50.3% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 51.0% | 55.0% | 50.9% | 1268 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 52.7% | 54.0% | 51.2% | 1170 | — |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 2 | 20.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 50.4% | 52.9% | 50.4% | 1164 | — |
| 5 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.2% | 48.0% | 49.9% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 47.5% | 49.6% | 1167 | — |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 20.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 45.9% | 40.0% | 48.4% | 1135 | ↓ low |