Fire SeiryuuTier 2
at Grand Arena Weekly
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Polkhawk | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Exia | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coiled Fatestone | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bathe in Light | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Heaven | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Craggy Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Revelations | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Embertail Squirrel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smack with Flute | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Shenju | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Band of Burning Verdict | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arcane Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Progress | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lead with Force | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamelash Beastmaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Break Apart | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strengthen the Bonds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Journey's Beginning | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Balance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Invective Instruction | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Companion Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |