AAEXPO Special Tournament June 1

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Fractal	Tier 1	3	17.6%	5-3-3	59.1%	51.7%	53.3%	50.4%	1308	—
2		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	3	17.6%	3-6-3	37.5%	49.1%	47.4%	49.9%	1306	—
3		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	2	11.8%	4-4-1	50.0%	51.5%	45.2%	50.2%	1390	↑ top
4		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 1	2	11.8%	5-2-3	65.0%	49.6%	56.7%	49.9%	1448	↑ top
5		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	1	5.9%	3-1-1	70.0%	51.5%	51.3%	50.2%	1351	—
6		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 1	1	5.9%	3-2-0	60.0%	48.6%	51.7%	48.9%	1421	↑ top
7		Wind Arcane	Tier 2	1	5.9%	1-3-0	25.0%	49.3%	47.5%	50.0%	1215	↓ low
8		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	5.9%	1-3-1	30.0%	48.1%	45.2%	49.3%	1341	—
9		Wind Luxem Zander	Tier 2	1	5.9%	2-3-0	40.0%	49.1%	49.5%	49.8%	1267	↓ low
10		Wind Razorgale	Tier 2	1	5.9%	1-2-2	40.0%	50.4%	48.6%	50.1%	1331	—
11		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 1	1	5.9%	3-2-0	60.0%	50.2%	53.3%	50.3%	1331	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Fractal 3 decks · 17.6%
• Wind Shadowstrike 3 decks · 17.6%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 2 decks · 11.8%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 2 decks · 11.8%
• Fire Aggro 1 deck · 5.9%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 5.9%
• Wind Arcane 1 deck · 5.9%
• Wind Astra Cleric 1 deck · 5.9%
• Wind Luxem Zander 1 deck · 5.9%
• Wind Razorgale 1 deck · 5.9%
• Wind Seiryuu 1 deck · 5.9%