EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Revelfest Fire Bauble Pods.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 100.0% | 53.9% | 60.0% | 51.7% | 1229 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.3% | 55.0% | 50.5% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 62.5% | 51.8% | 55.0% | 51.1% | 1229 | — |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 2 | 11.8% | 5 | 70.0% | 52.0% | 52.9% | 50.6% | 1230 | — |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 62.5% | 50.1% | 52.5% | 50.0% | 1274 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.7% | 52.0% | 50.3% | 1188 | — |
| 7 | Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.5% | 51.7% | 50.2% | 1231 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 17.6% | 7 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 1243 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Umbra Ciel | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.7% | 48.6% | 49.7% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 49.1% | 45.0% | 49.6% | 1081 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Overlord | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 49.1% | 45.0% | 49.6% | 1081 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Neos | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.5% | 45.0% | 49.0% | 1107 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.2% | 44.0% | 49.1% | 1270 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.2% | 44.0% | 49.1% | 1128 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Seiryuu | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 46.5% | 40.0% | 48.4% | 1191 | — |