← GA Middle East Weekly DTR #6
Water AlliesTier 2
at GA Middle East Weekly DTR #6
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 57 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 57 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Confidant's Oath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rivulet Adjutant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sablier Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rescue the Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mire Reparation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sinistre Stab | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dian Wei, Valorant Fury | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flowing Oubli | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |