← GA Middle East Weekly DTR #8

Fire SuzakuTier 1

at GA Middle East Weekly DTR #8

decks
2 (11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4 3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3% avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
53.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1356 · median 1356 · range 1341–1372 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1191 Q1 1246 Q3 1363 1535
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 22.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.9% +1.5
Fire Firebloom Burn 16.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.2% -1.3
Fire Crux Mage 5.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.7% +1.1
Fire Suited 5.6% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 5.6% 0
Horse and Taxes 5.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.2% +2.0
Water Allies 5.6% 0
Water Genbu 5.6% 0
Water Tera Mage 5.6% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 5.6% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 5.6% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Flickering Cinder +1.00 1 0 0
Heated Vengeance -1.00 0 1 0
Fatestone of Unrelenting +1.00 1 0 0
Rococo, Explosive Maven +1.00 1 0 0
Smoke Out +1.00 1 0 0
Infernal Manastreak +1.00 1 0 0
Surging Bolt +1.00 1 0 0
Sword of Seeking +1.00 1 0 0
Three of Hearts -1.00 0 1 0
Fluffy Shopkeep -1.00 0 1 0
Demolition -1.00 0 1 0
Creative Shock -1.00 0 1 0
Peppered Chef -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Spark Alight -1.00 0 1 0
Restorative Flame +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Flamewreath Call -1.00 0 1 0
Shatter the Brittle -1.00 0 1 0
Guo Jia, Blessed Scion -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror +1.00 1 0 0
Dire Requiem +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/31469/archetypes/Fire Suzaku