← Phoenix Inn Store Championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Phoenix Inn Store Championship
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-3-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.4%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
43.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1150
· median 1150
· range 1150–1150
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1119
Q1 1194
Q3 1434
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 46.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
