EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at EVO treasure tournament.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 25.0% | 4 | 100.0% | 53.2% | 61.7% | 51.9% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Rile | 2 | 50.0% | 5 | 80.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | 50.0% | 1519 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.3% | 45.0% | 48.1% | 1478 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 48.3% | 40.0% | 49.4% | 1268 | — |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 25.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 51.3% | 40.0% | 50.6% | 1145 | ↓ low |