EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 67.4% | 60.0% | 56.9% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 58.8% | 53.3% | 54.1% | 1343 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Rile | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 58.8% | 53.3% | 54.1% | 1343 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 55.1% | 53.3% | 52.4% | 1213 | — |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 52.8% | 53.3% | 51.3% | 1301 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 40.1% | 46.7% | 45.4% | 1222 | — |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 51.4% | 46.7% | 50.6% | 1065 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 11.1% | 1 | 0.0% | 36.7% | 40.0% | 36.7% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Allies | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.3% | 40.0% | 42.7% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 36.4% | 40.0% | 41.9% | 1147 | ↓ low |