EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship DTR.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 91.7% | 69.4% | 57.8% | 56.0% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 63.3% | 56.2% | 57.3% | 1239 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 55.8% | 52.8% | 55.3% | 1276 | — |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 16.7% | 7 | 50.0% | 56.5% | 50.8% | 53.8% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 45.9% | 48.6% | 49.4% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 42.3% | 48.3% | 47.5% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 43.8% | 40.1% | 48.0% | 46.0% | 1293 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 16.7% | 7 | 35.7% | 37.4% | 47.8% | 46.3% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 16.7% | 35.6% | 42.5% | 42.5% | 1532 | ↑ top |