EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 紙牌屋店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 2 | 15.4% | 8 | 81.2% | 67.2% | 58.1% | 56.8% | 1322 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 48.5% | 56.7% | 50.9% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Suited | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 87.5% | 72.5% | 56.7% | 57.1% | 1307 | — |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 46.7% | 56.7% | 50.5% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 53.6% | 50.0% | 54.7% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 50.0% | 50.5% | 1236 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.4% | 48.0% | 47.9% | 1261 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 15.4% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.6% | 44.4% | 46.7% | 1322 | — |
| 9 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 15.4% | 7 | 14.3% | 32.8% | 42.2% | 43.9% | 1232 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 35.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | 1275 | — |