← Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-3-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.7%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
52.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1252
· median 1252
· range 1201–1303
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1162
Q1 1202
Q3 1319
1421
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 14.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.9% | -5.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Neos | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
