← Heretics Haven - DTR Season Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Heretics Haven - DTR Season Store Championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1318
· median 1318
· range 1318–1318
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1122
Q1 1170
Q3 1316
1336
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
