Water AetherwingTier 2
at GA DTR 店冠賽
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.6%
avg ELO -5.7 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1383
· median 1383
· range 1276–1491
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1051
Q1 1237
Q3 1424
1591
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.4% | -7.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
