← Symphony DTR Store Championship
Fire RileTier 1
at Symphony DTR Store Championship
decks
6
(60.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
10-8-1
overall winrate
55.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.8%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1219
· range 1159–1652
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1159
Q1 1171
Q3 1363
1652
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.0% | +15.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 10.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 42.9% | -4.5 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.4% | -7.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.3 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Inert Sword, Evercurrent Raider, The Looking Glass.
Inert Sword
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
The Looking Glass
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Orb of Sealing
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Ciel, Mirage's Grave
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 122 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 102 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inert Sword | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sacred Lightning | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harness Lightning | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conduit of the Mad Mage | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Shenju | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Azurite Fatestone | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Journey's Beginning | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm Tyrant's Eye | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |