← DTR Store Champs @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at DTR Store Champs @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-4-1
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.5%
avg ELO -9.5 per match
expected value
41.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1013
· median 1013
· range 1013–1013
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1078
Q3 1388
1575
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 30.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Water Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
