← Desert City Games DTR Store Championship (Date Tentative)

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Desert City Games DTR Store Championship (Date Tentative). EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 57.7% 56.0% 56.0% 1254
2 Wind Shadowstrike 3 37.5% 7 57.1% 54.0% 55.3% 54.6% 1256
3 Fire Suzaku 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 53.2% 52.5% 50.7% 1268
4 Slimes 2 25.0% 4 50.0% 45.9% 44.0% 43.6% 1271
5 Fire Tera Silvie 1 12.5% 3 0.0% 37.5% 40.0% 43.7% 1105 ↓ low