Water FractalTier 1
at DTR STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1449
· median 1449
· range 1449–1449
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1302
Q3 1470
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 45.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Byakko | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
