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Water AlliesTier 2
at Tabletop Village Store Championship
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
27.7%
avg ELO -12.8 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1357
· median 1357
· range 1357–1357
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1253
Q3 1348
1499
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
