Fire ExiaTier 1
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Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 42.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.4% | +4.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |