← DTR Store Championship GK Redwood City
Fire ExiaTier 1
at DTR Store Championship GK Redwood City
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.2% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conflagrant Sentinel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |