Fire RileTier 2

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 9 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• Netto 85 cards · placed #3
• Efferus 85 cards · placed #4
• JacobCaldwell 88 cards · placed #5
• Elian 83 cards · placed #6
• Rhea 88 cards · placed #7
• Rubicks 86 cards · placed #9
• Soroken 90 cards · placed #11
• Gunshi 83 cards · placed #12
• BigShrimp 82 cards · placed #14

In 9 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Regal Inquisition, Fast Cure, Resolute Stand. Losers more often ran: Evercurrent Raider, Spirelle, Schwartz Queen, Slip Away.

↑ Played more by winners

Regal Inquisition

Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.4.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.

Fast Cure

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.4.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 4.

Resolute Stand

Winning decks ran 3.1 copies on average, losing decks 2.8.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 1.

Staggering Strike

Winning decks ran 1.9 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 5.

Chalice of Blood

Winning decks ran 0.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 3.

Spirit of Serene Fire

Winning decks ran 0.6 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 3.

↓ Played more by losers

Evercurrent Raider

Losing decks ran 3.1 copies on average, winning decks 2.2.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.

Spirelle, Schwartz Queen

Losing decks ran 1.1 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 4.

Slip Away

Losing decks ran 1.1 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 4.

Spirit of Fire

Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 3.

Heavenly Guide

Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 3.

Tariff Ring

Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.6.

Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 5.