Fire Crux MageTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1177
· median 1177
· range 1123–1231
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1081
Q1 1123
Q3 1204
1540
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 53.3% | +3.1 |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +11.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
