← Distorted Reflections – Store Championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Distorted Reflections – Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.7%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1445
· median 1445
· range 1445–1445
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1216
Q3 1439
1493
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Fire Exia | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
