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Fire Crux MageTier 2
at FCC Distorted Reflections Store Champs
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.5%
avg ELO -4.4 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1254
· median 1254
· range 1210–1299
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1020
Q1 1108
Q3 1299
1436
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 30.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
