Fire ShadowstrikeTier 2
at hvn champ
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-4-1
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.2%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1091
· median 1091
· range 1091–1091
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1091
Q1 1127
Q3 1271
1382
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 22.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Suited | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Shadowstrike decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
