Fire OblationTier 2
at Taipei 101聯賽決賽
decks
3
(18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
6-6-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1495
· median 1502
· range 1441–1542
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1180
Q1 1297
Q3 1488
1694
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 56.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
