← STORE CHAMPIONSHIP AT LITTLE SPECTACLES!!! :O
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP AT LITTLE SPECTACLES!!! :O
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.3%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
59.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1502
· median 1502
· range 1502–1502
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1172
Q3 1420
1535
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
