EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 淡水 貓腳印 DTR 店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 87.5% | 61.5% | 59.5% | 56.1% | 1536 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 16.7% | 9 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 56.2% | 55.4% | 1395 | — |
| 3 | Fire Rile | 2 | 16.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.8% | 55.0% | 53.3% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.7% | 48.6% | 49.9% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.4% | 48.0% | 49.4% | 1272 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.4% | 45.0% | 48.9% | 1311 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.4% | 45.0% | 47.4% | 1224 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 3 | 25.0% | 9 | 33.3% | 41.3% | 44.4% | 45.9% | 1294 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 32.0% | 43.3% | 38.8% | 1362 | — |