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Water AlliesTier 2
at DTR Store Champ Armchair Adventurer
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 69 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 69 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Condemned Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisonous Apple | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Confidant's Oath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brusque Neige | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rivulet Adjutant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Whimsy's Warden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sablier Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Memento Pocketwatch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immaterial Dissolution | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devotion's Price | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Leporine Masque | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rescue the Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mire Reparation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sinistre Stab | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Grim Stalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Skewering Advance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidebreaker Sentinel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alice, Golden Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Tirade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flowing Oubli | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |