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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Valkyrie Games Store Championship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.8%
avg ELO -9.1 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1094
· median 1094
· range 1094–1094
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1158
Q3 1358
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
