EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 83.3% | 53.9% | 58.9% | 52.4% | 1584 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 57.4% | 55.3% | 52.9% | 1524 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 66.9% | 53.3% | 59.8% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 41.1% | 52.0% | 47.6% | 1427 | — |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.9% | 45.0% | 47.4% | 1275 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.4% | 38.3% | 42.6% | 1373 | — |