EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GGA DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 61.6% | 60.0% | 57.7% | 1283 | — |
| 2 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 87.5% | 57.8% | 57.5% | 53.1% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 80.0% | 60.9% | 55.0% | 52.4% | 1413 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 53.5% | 55.0% | 53.7% | 1249 | — |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.0% | 54.3% | 52.8% | 1303 | — |
| 6 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 53.3% | 51.4% | 1252 | — |
| 7 | Fire Suited | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.9% | 50.0% | 50.5% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.7% | 50.0% | 52.3% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 25.0% | 11 | 31.8% | 46.6% | 45.2% | 48.7% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 36.2% | 44.2% | 42.7% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.4% | 43.3% | 41.5% | 1234 | — |