EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GGM DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 87.5% | 57.3% | 59.2% | 53.1% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 69.6% | 55.0% | 57.8% | 1234 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 22.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 64.7% | 53.9% | 57.9% | 1230 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Allies | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 60.4% | 52.5% | 54.1% | 1283 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 39.2% | 46.7% | 45.0% | 1413 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 36.7% | 46.0% | 43.4% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 32.5% | 44.0% | 41.9% | 1249 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 36.6% | 40.0% | 43.8% | 1208 | ↓ low |