Water Umbra CielTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.5%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1199
· median 1199
· range 1199–1199
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1108
Q1 1142
Q3 1263
1474
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
