← Fortress DTR Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Fortress DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 62.8% | 60.0% | 54.7% | 1563 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 53.4% | 56.7% | 52.3% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 60.9% | 56.7% | 55.1% | 1348 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.8% | 55.0% | 50.3% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.8% | 53.3% | 53.6% | 1160 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 50.0% | 52.5% | 50.0% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 21.4% | 10 | 45.0% | 49.5% | 48.3% | 49.5% | 1293 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 50.9% | 48.3% | 50.8% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% | 49.0% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 50.1% | 45.0% | 47.3% | 1255 | — |
| 11 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.5% | 45.0% | 46.6% | 1074 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 31.8% | 36.0% | 39.3% | 1196 | ↓ low |