Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at MBM Store Championship
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.6%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1214
· median 1214
· range 1147–1280
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1147
Q1 1202
Q3 1280
1477
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
