EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA #41 Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Allies

44.0%

62.5% share · 7 matches

1st

Wind Shadowstrike

62.5%

25.0% share · 4 matches

3rd

Horse and Taxes

42.9%

12.5% share · 3 matches

↑ top

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Shadowstrike	2	25.0%	4	75.0%	62.2%	62.5%	62.2%	1272	—
2	Water Allies	5	62.5%	7	42.9%	50.5%	44.0%	46.7%	1229	—
3	Horse and Taxes	1	12.5%	3	33.3%	35.3%	42.9%	35.3%	1313	↑ top