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Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Champions
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Fire Neos | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card-quantity differences observed in the mirrors — every mirror used an identical decklist.