← Distorted Reflections Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Distorted Reflections Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 12.5% 10 75.0% 59.9% 55.9% 53.2% 1429 ↑ top
2 Wind Shadowstrike 1 6.2% 4 62.5% 45.1% 54.0% 49.4% 1453 ↑ top
3 Slimes 1 6.2% 5 70.0% 64.7% 53.3% 55.3% 1237
4 Wind Seiryuu 1 6.2% 4 62.5% 53.0% 52.5% 51.2% 1343 ↑ top
5 Water Genbu 1 6.2% 6 58.3% 54.9% 51.1% 51.3% 1407 ↑ top
6 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 6.2% 5 60.0% 54.8% 50.0% 50.7% 1242
7 Fire Crux Mage 1 6.2% 4 62.5% 53.3% 50.0% 49.8% 1378 ↑ top
8 Fire Aetherwing 1 6.2% 4 50.0% 49.6% 48.0% 48.4% 1161 ↓ low
9 Fire Suzaku 1 6.2% 4 50.0% 52.4% 48.0% 49.4% 1250
10 Water Fractal 1 6.2% 4 50.0% 49.8% 48.0% 49.1% 1340 ↑ top
11 Water Aetherwing 1 6.2% 3 33.3% 47.2% 46.7% 48.7% 1122 ↓ low
12 Horse and Taxes 1 6.2% 4 25.0% 50.9% 45.0% 50.4% 989 ↓ low
13 Fire Aggro 1 6.2% 4 25.0% 37.0% 45.0% 44.8% 1065 ↓ low
14 Wind Arcane 1 6.2% 3 0.0% 36.5% 40.0% 43.7% 1021 ↓ low
15 Wind Exia 1 6.2% 4 0.0% 27.7% 40.0% 41.1% 1101 ↓ low