Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1441
· median 1441
· range 1250–1632
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1235
Q3 1381
1632
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
| Fire Neos | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
