EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly DTR #10. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Firebloom Burn

57.5%

12.5% share · 6 matches

6.2% share · 3 matches

12.5% share · 6 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Fractal	1	6.2%	3	100.0%	51.7%	60.0%	50.8%	1353	↑ top
2	Fire Firebloom Burn	2	12.5%	6	83.3%	50.6%	57.5%	50.3%	1440	↑ top
3	Water Aetherwing	2	12.5%	6	58.3%	50.6%	52.1%	50.2%	1288	—
4	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	6.2%	3	66.7%	51.4%	52.0%	50.5%	1224	↓ low
5	Water Tera Mage	1	6.2%	3	66.7%	51.6%	50.0%	50.6%	1367	↑ top
6	Wind Shadowstrike	1	6.2%	3	50.0%	48.8%	48.0%	49.3%	1353	↑ top
7	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	6.2%	3	33.3%	49.3%	45.0%	49.5%	1222	↓ low
8	Fire Suited	2	12.5%	4	25.0%	49.1%	44.0%	49.6%	1265	↓ low
9	Fire Tera Cleric	1	6.2%	3	16.7%	48.0%	43.3%	49.1%	1313	—
10	Water Umbra Guardian	2	12.5%	4	25.0%	49.4%	42.7%	49.6%	1222	↓ low
11	Water Ravishing Mill	1	6.2%	3	16.7%	49.8%	42.5%	49.8%	1231	↓ low
12	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	6.2%	1	0.0%	49.2%	40.0%	49.2%	1425	↑ top