EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CM Westcity DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Merlin

56.7%

11.1% share · 4 matches

11.1% share · 4 matches

11.1% share · 3 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	11.1%	4	87.5%	54.2%	58.7%	50.6%	1584	↑ top
2	Fire Crux Merlin	1	11.1%	4	75.0%	52.5%	56.7%	52.1%	1558	↑ top
3	Wind Shadowstrike	1	11.1%	3	66.7%	56.5%	53.3%	53.0%	1430	↑ top
4	Fire Suited	2	22.2%	8	56.2%	59.4%	52.8%	54.5%	1382	—
5	Wind Astra Cleric	2	22.2%	6	33.3%	44.9%	45.6%	47.3%	1330	—
6	Water Fractal	1	11.1%	4	25.0%	45.6%	45.3%	49.4%	1217	↓ low
7	Water Allies	1	11.1%	3	0.0%	32.0%	40.0%	41.3%	1151	↓ low