Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at DTR Store Champs
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Flame Sweep.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Under Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |