← Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
Water GenbuTier 1
at Grand Archive - Constructed - Regionals
decks
2
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.2%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
53.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1387
· median 1387
· range 1315–1460
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1177
Q3 1431
1702
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
