← Distorted Reflections Store Champs!
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Distorted Reflections Store Champs!
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-4-1
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.1%
avg ELO -8.6 per match
expected value
40.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1246
· median 1246
· range 1226–1267
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1219
Q3 1282
1453
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Diana | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
