← HIDEOUT DTR Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 2
at HIDEOUT DTR Store Championship
decks
3
(11.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.5%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1375
· median 1383
· range 1304–1437
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1139
Q1 1224
Q3 1379
1460
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Suited | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
